2020.12.03
Chapter 1: Gap instinct
When you live on level 4, everyone on levels 3, 2, 1 can look equally poor, and the word poor can lose any specific meaning. Even a person on level 4 can appear poor: maybe the paint on their walls is peeling, or maybe they are driving a used car. Anyone who has looked down from the top of a tall building knows that it is difficult to assess from there the differences in height of the buildings nearer the ground. They all look kind of small. In the same way, it is natural for people living on level 4 to see the world as divided into just two categories: rich and poor. It is natural to miss the distinctions between the people with cars, with motorcycles and bicycles and the people with no shoes at all. People living on the ground on levels 1 and 2 know very well how much better life would be if they could move from $1 to $4 a day, not to mention $16 a day.
Level 1- less than $2 a day — 1 billion people
Level 2 — $2 — $8 a day — 3 billion people
Level 3- $8 — $32 a day- 2 billion people
Level 4- more than $32 a day — 1 billion people
Factfulness is recognising when a story talks about a gap, and remembering that reality is not polarised at all.
Chapter 2: The negativity instinct
Expect bad news.
Things can be both better and bad.
Remember good news almost never reaches us.
People often glorify their early experiences, and nations often glorify their histories, which can be shown as if things are getting worse.
Chapter 3: The straight line instinct
Don’t assume straight lines. Many trends do not follow straight lines but are S-bends, slides, humps or doubling lines. Just like world population (which is gradually decreasing in rate, by the way), worse things are not just increasing in straight line.
Chapter 4: The fear instinct
Factfulness is recognising when frightening things get our attention, and remembering that these are not necessarily the most risky.
Calculate the risks. The world seems scarier because you are constantly hearing selected ‘scary’ news.
Risk = danger*exposure
Chapter 5: The size instinct
In the deepest poverty, you should never do anything perfectly. If you do you are stealing resources from where they can be better used.
By 2100, the PIN code of the world will be 1–1–4–5. More than 80% of the world will be living in Africa and Asia. By 2040, 60% of Level 4 consumers will be living outside the West.
To control the size instinct, get things in proportion.
Compare. Big numbers always look big until you compare them with even bigger number. Single number often on their own misleading and should make you suspicious.
80/20. Have you been given a long list? Look for the few largest items and deal with those first. They(20%) are quite likely more important than all the others put together(80%)
Divide. Amounts and rates can tell very different stories. Rates are more meaningful, especially when comparing between different sized groups.
Chapter 6: The generalisation instinct
dollarstreet.org
(The incident where student puts her legs between elevator doors and gets injured)Hmm. So your country has become so safe that the outside world is dangerous for you.
(The incident where teacher was amused with Bangalore’s medical students’ knowledge that he felt ashamed) I suddenly had to change my worldview: my assumption that I was superior because of where I came from, the idea that the West was the best and the rest would never catch up.
(The incident where, despite having said Africa will eradicate extreme poverty in 20 years, Hans was said having no vision)Do you think Africans will be happy living in only ordinary poverty? My 50 year vision is that Africans will be open tourists in Europe and not unwanted refugees.
Factfulness is recognising that many things appear as static because they are gradually changing, but even slow changes gradually add up to big changes.
Keep track of gradual improvements.
Update your knowledge.
Talk to Grandpa. Talking to elderly people really reminds you how much can change in just one life time.
Chapter 8: The single perspective instinct
(Prime minister of Mozambique from 1994 to 2004) Our country is making great economic progress. I look at figures like GDP per capita but they are not so accurate. So I also made it a habit to watch the marches on May first every year. I know people do their best to look good on that day, and I look at people’s shoes.
Cuba — Healthiest of the poor/Poorest of the healthy
Factfulness is recognising that a single perspective can limit your imagination.
Test your ideas. Don’t only collect examples of how great your ideas are. Look at the other side.
Limited expertise. Don’t claim expertise beyond your field.
Hammers and nails. If you have analysed a problem in depth, you may exaggerate the importance of the problem or your solution. Remember that no one tool is good for everything. Be open.
Numbers, but not only numbers.
Chapter 9: The blame instinct
Look for causes, not villains.
Look for systems, not heroes.
Chapter 10: The urgency instinct
Factfulness is recognising when a decision feels urgent and remembering that it rarely is.
Take a breath. When your urgency instinct is triggered, it usually blurs your logic and reasoning.
Insist on the data.
Beware of fortune-tellers. Even statistically correct future predictions can turn out wrong.
Be wary of drastic action. Ask what the side effects could be. Step-by-step practical improvements, and evaluation of their impact, are less dramatic but usually more effective.
